Monday, February 16, 2009

How Many Will Dance In The Big Ten?

5? 6? 7?

Who knows how the committee will go on Selection Sunday. As it stands right now, there are 3 locks, and 5 teams hovering around the bubble.

Michigan State (20-4), Illinois (21-5), and Purdue (19-6) are all locks. Barring a unprecedented collapse, these team easily make the tourney.

Ohio State (17-6), Minnesota (19-6), Penn State (18-8), Wisconsin (16-9), and Michigan (16-10) are all toeing the line.

Of these teams, Ohio State ad Minnesota are in the best position: Both have 3 remaning home games, and should have a easy time finishing the season with more wins than losses.

OSU sees Northwestern twice, Illinois and Penn State at home, with road games at Purdue and Iowa. My take: 4-2 gets them in the tourney easily.

Minnesota has 3 homes games including Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan: all winnable. The wildcard will be @Mich. Assuming a loss at Illinois and a 3-2 finish, the Gophers are in as an 8 seed. 4-1 finish, move it up to a 6 or 7.

Penn State has worked their way into the conversation with some big wins recently - ut games @Ill, @ OSU, and @ Iowa will make the road a tough one. They'll need to go 3-2 to make a strong case to the committee (that would include a home win at Illinois and one road win).

Wisconsin should be able to finish strong, with two games versus Indiana, and a home game against Michigan. Winning on the road at Minnesota would give them 20 wins - but 3-2 finish down the stretch puts he ball i ntehir court to win in the Big Ten Tourney and advance to the dance.

Michigan is big long shot: their schedule includes two home games: Minn and Purdue, ans three road games: @Iowa, @Wisconsin, @ Minnesota. Three letters: NIT.

The way I see it, Big Ten gets 6 teams.

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