Saturday, February 28, 2009

Why I HATE the Southland Conference

Call me a purist - but I like a certain order to the conference tournament schedule in the first couple of weeks of March. Unfortunately, the Southland Conference holds their conference tournament as if they were an actual major conference - and it's just not right.

Normally, the small conferences have their tournaments in in the last week of February and the first days of March. For instance, the Atlantic Sun conference - whose champion last year was Belmont - holds their conferece tournament March 4-7th.

That makes sense. Their championship is picked up by ESPN and they get some marquee coverage while other bigger conferences are winding down their season.

The WCC also goes this route, holding their conference tournament March 6-9th - playing their championship game on a Monday night when the bigger conferences have a few days off before their conference tournaments.

The Southland conference goes another route. They hold their tournament March 11th-15th. The same days as the Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, SEC, Big East... you get the picture.

Do they really think they are up with these other conferences? I mean - their top team last year was Austin Peay! This isn't top competition - this is a sub-par division 1 conference that should be playing their championship game on a random Tuesday in early March!

Not only do they compete with the SEC championship (and ESPN - for some reason - abliges and airs the game) but they also must create a headache for the committee. Granted, it probably just mean shuffling a couple of 15 and 16 seeds around, but it's a late decision the committee shouldn't have to waste time making.

The Southland conference pisses me off - and I will refuse to pick them to win a game in the Tournament.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

#1 Seeds

Just a a couple of precious weeks until Selection Sunday and the #1 seeds couldn't be more up in the air.

Injuries are riddling top 10 teams, and the top contenders now head into conference tournaments and crucial end of the season road games.

That said - here is my projected number 1 seeds. This is not if the season were to end today, but rather, how I project the #1 seeds ending up on selection sunday:

1 East: UNC

North Carolina wins the ACC regular season, and even with a loss in the ACC Championship game, they are a number 1.

1 West: Memphis

The Tigers will benefit from a weak C-USA and winning out the rest of their games. While teams lie UConn and Pitt get beat up in Big East Tourney play, Memphis cruises to a Number 1 seed.

1 South: Oklahoma

The Sooners get their POY candidate back and tear up the Big 12. Number 1 seed, Check. Next Stop: Championship.

1 Midwest: Michigan State

This spot, in my opinion is the trickiest. If Pitt, UConn, or Louisville win the Big East, they'll be looking at this position. But if another team (like a Marquette) makes a run, this spot is open for the taking. In my opinion, Michigan Stat will win both the regular season and conference tourney championship in the Big Ten. Having done so in the top ranked conference by the RPI, the committee will award them a #1 seed.

Oddly enough, this leaves the Big East without a #1 seed. That means we'll likely see up to 4 Big East schools (Pitt, UCONN, Louisville, and Marquette) with 2 seeds. I don't think, however, that Marquette will get a 2 by virtue of their gauntlet of a schedule in the stretch run that will surely give them 2 or 3 losses (UCONN, @Louisville, @ Pitt, Syracuse)

Monday, February 16, 2009

How Many Will Dance In The Big Ten?

5? 6? 7?

Who knows how the committee will go on Selection Sunday. As it stands right now, there are 3 locks, and 5 teams hovering around the bubble.

Michigan State (20-4), Illinois (21-5), and Purdue (19-6) are all locks. Barring a unprecedented collapse, these team easily make the tourney.

Ohio State (17-6), Minnesota (19-6), Penn State (18-8), Wisconsin (16-9), and Michigan (16-10) are all toeing the line.

Of these teams, Ohio State ad Minnesota are in the best position: Both have 3 remaning home games, and should have a easy time finishing the season with more wins than losses.

OSU sees Northwestern twice, Illinois and Penn State at home, with road games at Purdue and Iowa. My take: 4-2 gets them in the tourney easily.

Minnesota has 3 homes games including Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan: all winnable. The wildcard will be @Mich. Assuming a loss at Illinois and a 3-2 finish, the Gophers are in as an 8 seed. 4-1 finish, move it up to a 6 or 7.

Penn State has worked their way into the conversation with some big wins recently - ut games @Ill, @ OSU, and @ Iowa will make the road a tough one. They'll need to go 3-2 to make a strong case to the committee (that would include a home win at Illinois and one road win).

Wisconsin should be able to finish strong, with two games versus Indiana, and a home game against Michigan. Winning on the road at Minnesota would give them 20 wins - but 3-2 finish down the stretch puts he ball i ntehir court to win in the Big Ten Tourney and advance to the dance.

Michigan is big long shot: their schedule includes two home games: Minn and Purdue, ans three road games: @Iowa, @Wisconsin, @ Minnesota. Three letters: NIT.

The way I see it, Big Ten gets 6 teams.

Loyola-Chicago

Butler is vulnerable.

Not only did Butler get beat by the under-matched Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, they got beat at Home. The old Hinkle Fieldhouse is best known for beingthat site of the championship game in the classic basketball movie "Hoosiers" and is normally a huge home court advantage for the Bulldogs. Now Butler has lost to both Loyola Chicago and to Wisconsin-GB, meaning the Horizon League Championship (March 3-10 - hosted at higher remaining seed) is up for grabs and the conference could send 2 teams dancing.

Turnaround

It may pain Minnesota Gopher fans to hear this, but Dan Monson deserves some credit.

After being booted from his Head Coaching position at the U of M, he found himself at Long Beach State - s school that went just 3-11 in conference last year, and 6-25 overall. Now, he's got his 49ers team one game out of first place behind Cal State Northridge - a team LBS beat earlier this season.

So despite failing miserably at the U - Monson seems to have found new life on the west coast at a small school... and with a couple wins in the Big West Tournament (3/11-3/14) - 'ol Danny could be back in the NCAA Tourney.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Week 13

It's always fun to take a look back on past seasons and see how teams moved up or down the rankings from mid-season to the Final Four. I do this because I wanted to see if my hometown Gophers had any shot at making the Final Four as they've dropped from the top 25 in the most recent rankings.

Here are the last ten Final Fours, listed as (Championship team, runner-up, final four team, final team) as well as their AP ranking in week 13 of that season. I then list the AP's top four teams in week 13 of that particular season.

'98-'99 UConn (2) over Duke (1), OSU (13), Mich St. (5)
1. Duke, 2. UConn, 3. Auburn, 4. Cincy

'99-'00 Michigan State (6) over Florida (12), Wisconsin (UR), UNC (UR)
1. Cincy, 2. Stanford, 3. Duke, 4. Syracuse

'00-'01 Duke (3) over Arizona (11), Maryland (13), Mich St.(4)
1. UNC, 2. Stanford, 3. Duke, 4. Mich St.

'01-'02 Maryland (3) over Indiana (UR), Kansas (2), Oklahoma (4)
1. Duke, 2. Kansas, 3. Maryland, 4. Oklahoma

'02-'03 Syracuse (17) over Kansas (9), Marquette (11), Texas (6)
1. Arizona, 2. Louisville, 3. Kentucky, 4. Florida

'03-'04 UConn (8) over Georgia Tech (18), Okla St (7), Duke (3)
1. Stanford, 2. St. Joe's, 3. Duke, 4. Miss St.

'04-'05 UNC (4) over Illinois (1), Louisville (12), Mich S. (11)
1.Illinois, 2. Kansas, 3. Kentucky, 4. UNC

'05-'06 Florida (10) over UCLA (15), LSU (25), George Mason (UR)
1. UConn, 2. Duke, 3. Memphis, 4. Villanova

'06-'07 Florida (1) over OSU (3), UCLA (2), Georgetown (22)
1. Florida, 2. UCLA, 3. OSU, 4. Wisconsin

'07-'08 Kansas (4) over Memphis (1), UNC (3), UCLA (5)
1. Memphis, 2. Duke, 3. UNC, 4. Kansas


Some interesting stats in te last ten years:

40% of teams ranked #1 after week 13 have reaced the championship game.
10% of temas ranked #1 after week 13 win the championship (1 out of 10).

10% of final four teams since '98-'99 were unranked in week 13 (4 of 40).

The average AP ranking of a final four team at week 13 is 9.6 (ideally, it would be 2.5)

Sunday, February 8, 2009

5 More Weeks

We're less than 840 hours until selection sunday... it just won't come soon enough!

It was a rough weekend for my teams (Gonzaga/Minnesota) - and the field of 65 couldn't be more clouded.

Here, now, is my latest look at seeding and location for the tournments top 4 seeds in each region.

1 Seeds
East: UConn - Philadelphia
West: Pitt - Philadelphia
Midwest: Oklahoma - Kansas City
South: UNC - Greensboro

2 Seeds
East: Duke - Greensboro
West: Wake - Forest Boise
Midwest: Memphis - Minneapolis
South: Louisville - Dayton

3 Seeds
East: Marquette - Miami
West: Xavier - Dayton
Midwest: Clemson - Minneapolis
South: UCLA - Portland

4 Seeds
East: Michigan State - Boise
West: Kansas - Portland
Midwest: Villanova - Miami
South: Butler - Kansas City

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Blow-out City

Seeing a couple of blow-out upsets on ESPN nver looked so good.

As a Minnesota Gopher fan, I had been hoping for the Gophs to at least put up a fight against a tough Michigan State squad (fresh off a loss at home to Penn State)... but Minnesota ran into a buzzsaw and couldn't hit a thing. They got blown out by 29.

That hurt - until I got home and saw that #3 Duke had lost at #10 Clemson by 27, and #6 Wake got pummled by the same score at unranked Miami(FL).

So in the end, College Basketball Tonight doesn't hit on the Gophers game until the second or third segment - and the Gophers can have all forgiven with a win at Ohio State on Saturday. Whew!

One Heavy Bubble

With less than 40 days to go until Selection Sunday, I decided to take a peek at what this year's "Bubble" looked like. And let's just say this season: You don't want to be on the bubble.

Here's a conference-by-conference breakdown of how many teams I consider a lock:
ACC-4
Big East-7
Big Ten-5
Big 12-4
Pac 10-4
SEC-4
A10-2
MWC-3
C-USA-1

The rest of the conferences will likely just have their automatic bid - but that's assuming the following teams win their tourney:
MAAC-Siena
Southern-Davidson
WAC-Utah St.

If these teams lose in their conference tournament, they'll be palced firmly on the bubble... a very, very large bubble.

With the conference locks (34) and other automatic bids (22), that puts us at 56 teams - leaving 9 spots for this laundry list of legitimate bubble teams:

Boston College
Florida State
Va Tech
Miami (FL)
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Baylor
Providence
G'Town
Notre Dame
Penn State
Northwestern
Michigan
Tulsa
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Arizona
USC
Kentucky
Mississippi St.
Mississippi
St. Mary's

Should be an interesting stretch run!

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

BracketBuster Saturday

As a product of a mid-major myself - I love the idea of Bracket Buster Saturday. It pits teams like Butler against Davidson and St. Mary's against Utah State.

This weekend, however, can be a double-edged sword. Some teams can be catapulted into NCAA Tournament at-large status, while others will be looked at as long-shot bubble teams who need to win their conference tournament to make the Big Dance.

For instance, say Northern Iowa, a legit bubble team at an RPI of 73, gets beat at Siena - a tough, tough team, RPI of 20 - it'll be looked at as the end of Northern Iowa's At-Large hopes. Granted - if you win the games, you're going to get in. But unfortunately, these games are make and break for the mid-majors out there.

I guess in the end it adds to the drama - but while it can help the winners of these games, the losers often lose more than the game - regardless of where it is.

Delusion - or the Real Deal?

Seeing the University of Portlan being recognized as an "On the Bubble" school provokes mixed emotions in me.

On the one hand, I couldn't be prouder. As a WCC alum from Gonzaga, it's good to see the young Pilots playing well and getting some respect. It's like seeing your little, less athletic brother getting some recognition for his performance on the basketball court.

It's also a sign of the continued progress of the WCC as one of the more respected conferences outside of the "big 6". With both St. Mary's and Gonzaga being ranked in the top 25 during the course of the year, having a third team to add to the mix of potentially 'legit' teams from the conference only helps the cause.

On the other hand, it erks me. My buddy Dan graduated from UP a few years back (we were both attending school at the same time), and he is literally on cloud 9 with the squad's most recent success. Portland is the last school to beat Gonzaga at the Kennel ( a game the two of us both witnessed in person) and it kills me to this day, despite Gonzaga beating Portland every other time we've played since our attendance at our respective schools.

Now, I have been called - correctly - extremely dillusional when it comes to the WCC and Gonzaga (among other things), but Dan has taken his UP dillusions to a whole different level in years past. Year after year its "these guys are young and talented, give them a couple of years" - "Coach Holton is building a good squad this time around". It was all for naught. UP never had any significant success (outside o the one GU win) in the WCC or otherwise that translated into postsason opportunities.

Is this year any different?

Personally, I can't help but agree with Dan this time around. This Portland team is legit. They are winning games much like the unproven Gonzaga teams of the late 90s, early 2000s: Great Shooting. They have the 4th highest 3pt shooting percentage in the nation: 40.5%
They've also had a couple of very nice wins: Washington and St. Mary's (granted, without Mills).

They've also had some bad losses: Eastern Washington at Home

But they've also had some good losses: @ Cal, @ BYU, @Oregon and @Portland State

UP has had some injuries to contend with - but they are now healthy. And in all: I'm extremely worried about Gonzaga losing one at the Nipple on Thursday. I don't think Portland's success is a delusion - and I suspect if the Zags think it's a delusion, they'll find out in real time that the Pilots are the Real Deal.

Guess the Team:

Here are 4 teams... where would you seed them?

Team 1:
RPI: 12
SOS: 51
Versus RPI top 50:8-0
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):Purdue, Texas

Team 2:
RPI: 5
SOS: 45
Versus RPI top 50:5-3
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):@Tennessee, OK St

Team 3:
RPI: 20
SOS: 110
Versus RPI top 50:5-3
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):West Virginia, Villanova

Team 4:
RPI:11
SOS:76
Versus RPI top 50:4-3
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):Davidson, @Wisconsin

Answers:
Team 1 - Oklahoma
Team 2 - Gonzaga
Team 3 - Marquette
Team 4 - Purdue

I'd say all four teams are top four seeds given their resumes - though one loss for any of these teams could change that.

Monday, February 2, 2009

Groundhog Day

It's groundhog day - and Punxsutawney Phil stuck his head out of his hole to find out we've got 6 more weeks of winter... but good news: Selection Sunday is less than 6 weeks away!

To cure some boredom - I've started this blog: Bracketolitics. It's a mouthful, I know - but everything else with "brackets" in it was taken and I felt the convergance of politics and bracketology was fitting for me.

So, to debate in my first post: Who are the #1 seeds?

Right now I see them as:

UConn
Oklahoma
UNC
Louisville

(those arguing Duke, Wake, or Pitt: I don't see howhtey survive the rest of the season without a loss. Plus whoever wins the Big East (as I see Louisville doing) will get a #1 seed.

What are your thoughts?