Feast Week Recap

76 Classic:
Despite a great run by an upstart Portland team, West Virginia took the title. Disappointing appearance for UCLA (0-3), and then #16 Minnesota (1-2).

Paradise Jam:
Championship game was between Purdue and Tennessee, and as expected, was an entertaining one. Purdue outlasted the Vols, and held on to their #6 ranking.

Maui Invitational:
Gonzaga got a slow start against Colorado, but rode Stephen Gray's shooting and Matt Bouldin's clutch hoops to the title in an OT thriller versus Cincy. The Bulldogs used the title to make their way into the top 25.

NIT Season Tip-off:
The Tip-Off gave us a great title game: UConn versus Duke. The Blue Devils outlasted the Huskies, taking the title.

Old Spice Classic:
Florida State won in a close one over Marquette to win the championship. Marquette knocked off a very good Michigan team to get to the championship.

CBE Classic:
Not much of a classic as Texas rolled - winning every game by 16 or more.

Legends Classic:
This tourney gave us our only major upset, as unranked Florida upset #2 Michigan State in the championship game.

WTW (What to Watch): ESPN Feast Week

Plenty of good college hoops to watch this week, as holiday tournaments will pair up some of the top teams in the game. ESPN has most of the action covered, and here's a break-down of who to watch and when:

76 Classic (Nov. 26-29):
Easily the best field among the holiday tournaments, featuring #8 West Virginia, #11 Butler, #22 Clemson, and #24 Minnesota. Minnesota and Butler face-off in the first round - that's Thanksgiving Night at 8:30pm EST on ESPN2. Look for Portland, out of the WCC, to give UCLA all they can handle - the hot-shooting Pilots are a young but improving team catching some early season buzz.

Paradise Jam (Nov 20-23):
The championship game is Monday night - and it's going to be a dandy: #10 Tennessee vs #7 Purdue. The game is on Fox Sports Net (in most areas) at about 8:30pm EST (ESPN has incorrectly said this game starts at 9:30pm EST - but the tournament website says the game starts at 9:30 Atlantic time - an hour ahead of EST).

Maui Invitational (Nov. 23-25):
This field looked fairly strong when it was announced last year, but since - all of the teams have fallen out of the top 25 except Maryland at #25. Still, though, a solid field, featuring Maryland, Cincy, Vandy, Colorado, Gonzaga, Arizona and Wisconsin. The winner will come out of Maui with a lot of respect. The winner of the Arizona/Wisconsin game will be the early favorite.

NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 25-27):
Arizona State vs. Duke and LSU vs. UConn are your two semi-final match-ups which should lead to a UConn/Duke championship game. That game is Friday, Nov. 27th at 5pm EST on ESPN.

Old Spice Classic (Nov. 26-29):
#15 Michigan is the favorite in a field featuring Marquette, Xavier, Alabama, and Florida State. Championship game is Sunday, Nov. 29th at 7:30 EST on ESPN2.

CBE Classic (Nov. 23-24):
The field has been widdled down as all the regional hosts won out: Texas, Wichita State, Iowa, and Pitt. The championship game - which Texas is easily favored to win - is Tuesday, Nov. 24th at 10pm EST on ESPN2.

Legends Classic (Nov. 27-28):
Best game could take place in the semis as Michigan State vs Florida on the 27th 8pm EST on HDNet. Winner plays the winner of Rutgers vs. UMass.

WTW (What to Watch): Puerto Rico Tip-Off

The championship game of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off should be a stellar one as a hot Mississippi squad takes on #6 Villanova. Nova is still without Redding, but have a strong backcourt led by Scottie Reynolds.

Game is at 8pm EST on ESPN2.

In a consolation game, Kansas State takes on #21 Dayton. Looking forward to seeing how Dayton bounces back after a close loss to Nova. The mid-major needs the win to keep the preseason ranking - otherwise, it will be a tough fight back into top-seed contention come March.

Orangemen Stun UNC

Syracuse owned the Tar Heels in the Coaches vs Cancer Championship game on Friday night. Led by Wesley Johnson's 25 points, Syracuse shot 54% from the field - holding UNC to just 38%.

I believe this is a sign of things to come for this highly touted Tar Heel squad. A lot of young, raw talent will prove to be legit down the line - but for now, a #6 ranking appears to be far too high.

Meanwhile, Syracuse looks like they will compete once again in the Big East, despite the loss of Johnny Flynn.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off

Some good basketball in Puerto Rico this week as Dayton knocks off Georgia Tech 63-59, then gives Villanova all they can handle.

Nova barely beat George Mason, 69-68, needing a late three to prevail.

The wildcats - who are without Redding due to a suspension for a violation of team rules - will face off with the winner of the Mississippi/Kansas State game later tonight.

Either way, the Dayton Fliers are legit and George Mason looks like they will be a lot to handle come March. Meanwhile, it may be a long while until Indiana returns to form. They did not look good, losing to Ole Miss by 18 in the quarters.

You can catch the chamionship game Saturday at 8pm EST on ESPN2.

Live Blogging the ESPN Tip-Off Marathon

Monday - November 16th, 2009

10:45pm: All settled in and ready to tune into ESPN's unprecedented 24-Hour college basketball marathon... just glad that Baltimore/Cleveland game is over - UGLY!

11:15pm: UCLA is sluggish - but UC-Fullerton doesn't look much better - all even early on.

Tuesday - November 17th, 2009

12:58am: Wow... UC-Fullerton has made staying up late worthwhile: Overtime!

1:13am: Overtime #2. I'm loving how Fullerton is switching up defensively - UCLA is completely clueless on how to attack the 3-2, and they are broke from outside. Meanwhile, St. Mary's and San Diego State are underway - and the Gaels don't look like they miss Patty Mills one bit: they lead by 20 early.

1:22am: And we've got an Upset! Fullerton outlasts UCLA. First Fullerton win versus UCLA, and first home non-conference loss for UCLA in 7 years.

2:58: St. Mary's holds on for a 22 points win... they've got some shooters on that team. Look out Gonzaga.

3:07: On to Hawaii - Northern Colorado and Hawaii tip-off at 11pm local time... this could be the point I doze off for a few...

5:30am: Yup... fell asleep. Missed the end of Northern Colorado upsetting Hawaii. Looked like a pretty close battle as I nodded out. Checking in with the Monmouth/St. Peter's game - if I were a student, I'd be eating up this 6am game thing. Atleast as a one time thing.


10:54am: MAJOR POWER OUTAGE over. I'm pretty bummed. missed out watching the Monmouth game, Niagara game, and the beginning of the Clemson/Liberty game - but at least I got some sleep.

11:05am: Siena/Northeastern kicks off. Man, I love Bill Raftery - personally, my favorite color analyst in college hoops. ONIONS!

Wednesday - November 18th, 2009

12:14am: 26th hour of hoops. My Zags took a tough loss tonight at the hands of a physical Michigan State squad. Should pay dividends down the line. Great finish in the Kansas/Memphis game. Love Pastner - great story - wish he could have pulled off the upset. One game left - ASU/TCU... so tired....

We're Back!

After a long hiatus, Bracketolitics is back for another college basketball season. On behalf of the entire staff, I'd like to apologize for for our severe gaps in coverage the NCAA Tournament. This was due to some unforeseen circumstances, and we can assure you that this will not happen again.

The 2009-2010 year brings a lot of excitment, particularly because there is no clear-cut #1 (as we saw last year in UNC). As I browse through the preseason rankings, I'm happy to see a fair number of mid-major teams getting Top 25 votes (Butler, Dayton, even Siena is getting votes - ranked 27 in the AP poll).

In the next few days, I will be previewing some best holiday tournaments and what to watch for during ESPN's Feast Week.

UNC Wins Title

Really, like you didn't think that was going to happen... f-ing Tar Heels...

Pitt/ETSU - 3:45 CST

Pitt... you're up two.... with 10:25 left.

Are you serious?!?!

Tourney - Day 1

Day one started exciting, slowed down, then ended with a couple of good ones.

Here's my quick breakdown:

Most exciting game:

Memphis vs. Cal St. Northridge.
This game had the makings of a huge upset until the last few minutes fo the game. CSN gave Memphis a great run for their money - keeping the lead well into the second half. The saying goes "Survive and advance" - but is this a sign of a chink in Memphis' armor?

Best Finish:

UCLA vs VCU.
Hands down- best finish of the day. Maynerd had a chance to win it at the buzzer but his fade-away fell short. After a day of games with only one game that came down to a final possession (Clemson/Michigan) - this finish made the 10-hour day of basketball-watching worthwhile.

Best Perfomance:
Abrahms from Texas. He destroyed Minnesota and was absolutely on fire from "3".

Most disappointing performance:
Illinois. They were lucky to be in the game at the end - they were owned. I knwo they didn't have Fazier - but seriously, they sucked.

My personal favorite:
Zags advance to the 2nd round for the first time since 2006 (the Adam Morrison cries after blowing a lead to UCLA game)

Get Her A Bracket!

Have a significant other who doesn't watch hoops?

Do you spend way too much time watching 'her' shows.... ie HGTV....

Well get her a bracket then!

Guys, you can sucker your girl in that same way he suckers you into watching her shows. Just like that time you starting watching the bachelor and then all of a sudden it becomes destination TV: You're watching thinking Sally definitely should win over Jenny (and Maria is a bitch!)

You slide your girl a bracket - suddenly she cares about Louisville over Memphis (Sure, she may gag and go on and on about Pitino's white suit in the process - but you'll get her yelling at the TV about a college game she may never have watched had you not given her that sweet, sweet symmetrical bracket.

I don't claim to be a love doctor - but - this is a pretty damn good idea!

Extra Conference Tourneys

Despite not being an advocate of expanding the dance - I'm all about more post season tournaments.

Why? It's watered down, right? It makes no money, isn't worth putting on TV, etc. etc. etc.

Guess what: It's not about the money - it's not about the TV contracts - it's about the Players.

Coach Kerry Keating at Santa Clara said it best when lobbying to have his Broncos - along with conference player of the year John Bryant - play in one of the lower tier post-season tournaments: A kid of that talent deserves to play a little more basketball.

It's not about the lights. It's about getting some refs, a scoreboard, and playing in a game as a team. One last shot to play together and one last shot for a kid like John Bryant to experience post season play.

Keating knows a little about post season play. He was a guard for PJ Carlisimo's Seton Hall teams from 1989-1993. That has no real bearing on the story - just a fun fact.

Should the Tournament Expand?

A lot of coaches have been saying it should happen (Bruce Pearl, Tubby, Roy Williams to name a few) - and hell - why wouldn't they? Getting to the NCAA Tournament is their meal ticket. More tourney spots means more meal tickets for coaches and what's not to like about that in the high-pressure world of NCAA basketball coaching?

From a fan's perspective, I have mixed feelings. Everyone knows this time of year is my absolute favorite: I love me some March Madness and really can't get enough of it! So the prospects of more play-in games or expansion to 128 teams is a bit appealing to me. I'd love to see a couple of bubble teams battle it out for a chance to play a 2 seed.

I also like the prospect of that meaning more mid-majors getting a shot. The St. Mary's of the world won't be forced to have to beat a top notch Gonzaga team just to make it in the field, and teams like Portland might have an easier shot of atleast getting a whiff of the bubble....

But there in lie the problem: There will always be a bubble. Weather its #65 or 128, there will be a bubble somewhere and someone will inevitable get left out. Let's say they expand to 8 play-in games. 4 games for the lowest seeds, and 4 games for bubble teams to get slotted in somewhere in the 12-15 seeds. While it would have solved our "Arizona or St. Mary's" dilemma, we'd be left debating "Should it be Kentucky or Davidson" - which were two teams far from bubble talk this year for the top 65.

But my biggest argument against any expansion is this: The tournament expanded when they started using automatic bids.

Fact is - the NCAA Tournament really starts in the team's conference tournament. Every team (as long as they play well enough in the regular season and actually make their conference tournament) has a shot of representing their league in the Big Dance: Put up or shut up.

Granted, there are a myriad of problems:
1. Conference Tornaments should be held at either a neutral site or at the home of the regular season champ/higher seed. This rewards teams for better regular season.
2. Like the WCC, the top 1 or 2 seeds should get every advantage possible to make it to the championship game. In the WCC, both the 1 and 2 seeds get first and second round byes - automatically getting into the conference semis. I see that as a just reward - especially with teams that have little chance of getting an at-large bid otherwise. A team that wins their conference out to get something for their accomplishment that puts them at least a couple of steps towards winning the conference tourney.
3. Bigger schools need to start scheduling small schools in home and homes. It's ridiculous that these big schools get to play cupcake schedules (MINNESOTA) and never go on the road to some of these mid-majors. Give them some sort of incentive or change the RPI formula to accommodate that. Not sure how... but it needs to happen.

So - should the field of 65 expand? I don't think so: fact is it already is expanded. We just need to even the playing field.

What do you think?

Game 1; and a Prediction

It's official - the 2009 NCAA Tournament has begun!

In the opening round game, Morehead State took down Alabama State 58-43 in a less-than-entertaining match-up.

But here's my theory:

I've always said that if a #1 seed ever gets beat - it'll be to a team that plays in the play-in game. My thinking is that that team will not have had a 5+ day lay-off from playing, and might catch a team coming out cold. (Also, the last two seeds are often teams that played terrible in the year and won their conference tourney - so they could have a player or two that miraculously came into their own over the last month of play - - short deviation: a buddy of mine, after his senior year of high school, played in an all-star game after the season, and out of nowhere started dunking all over the Gym. No one saw it coming - not even him... now translate that into a college squad finally finding their rhythm. Could it happen? Eh... Maybe.

But back to the upset: This year is a special year: The play-in game is being played in Dayton - the same site as the 1 Louisville vs 16 Morehead State match-up. I'm not saying... I'm just saying... Morehead State HAS played one more game in that gym than Louisville this week.... could it translate into upste city for the first time for Number 16?

Down on the Big Ten? Try 'D'

I've heard sevveral announcers say that the Big Ten won't perform well in the tournament due to the fact that teams "Can't Score Points". While that may be true for my hometown Gophers, I prefer to to look a this trend another way:

The Big Ten plays good defense!!

I know this might come as a foreign idea to alot of the east coasters out there - but the Big Ten season is a rough and tumble league that bares down on 'D'. The gams get aggressive - and as Jay Bilas points out, gets called a little tighter.

Instead of Big Ten teams not being able to "score enough" points - I think the tournament frees up their play, and that they often play a lot more aggressive defensively than other teams.

It's pretty simple logic: Good defense means you're not letting the other team score points. When it comes to defensive efficency, the Big Ten has 3 of the top 10 defenses in the nation, with Minnesota sitting in the top 20.

I say you'll have at least 3 Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16, and 2 in the Elite 8.

Tourney Tid-Bits

A short deviation from the T-P-S-type reports I'm working on:

CBS has released who will be paired up for each site at this year's tourney:

http://www.cbssports.com/cbssports/story/11509998

Some notables:
+What a year for the Gophers to get the 'A'-Team! The "Billy Packer-less" pairing of Jim Nance and Clark Kellogg will be in Greensboro, as the Gophers get the "A-Team" announcers as a product of playing at the same site as Duke and UNC.

+Gus Johnson and Len Elmore are paired up in the Minneapolis Region... I can hear "Ha HAA!" and "Rise and Fire" coming from Kirby Puckett Place already.

+Personally, I'm glad Kevin Harlan is in Portland - to call the Zags game.


I mentioned this in a previous e-mail, but I find it really odd that 3 #1 seeds are playing in the 1:30/2pm time-slot, and 3 #2 seeds and 2 #1 seeds are playing on Thursday. Only 3 schools of the 8 on the top two lines will be playing in prime time... a HUGE shift from previous years where 1s and 2s took the prime-time, and late night spots. Meanwhile, 3 of the 7/10 match-ups are in the 6pm time slot. Maybe I'm the only one that finds this interesting, but as a TV guy I'm intrigued - and glad - they made the shift.

My trip to Vegas, Monday Night

I went out on Saturday night with Richard Fox, Stepp, Bankhead, and Nathan Doudney (The T-Tech transfer)– we go to this bar in the Bellagio and they introduce me to a couple of pretty cool guys “Erick” and “Gavin” – who end up taking care of the entire tab at the bar (literally hundreds of dollars of booze) – so I figure these guys are connected/well off. But it was weird cause one guy was pretty loud and not very well dressed (Gavin) and Erick just seemed like one of the guys.

Then, we get a ride from Erick to go to another “club”. The valet pulls up with this pimp Lexus SUV for Erick and a BMW Convertible for Gavin – completely decked out. We are driving around and Erick starts talking about crazy stories about strip clubs, and how he was pissed off (and he thought it was hilarious) that he got bumped from his table by Bob Saget the other day (“We got f-ing bumped by Danny –F-ing Tanner”, he said, laughing). Then he said he was at another club another night and that “the commercial shoot the next day was brutal”.

Now I’m starting to wonder – who the hell are these guys?

We get to the other “club” – which is this nice little “poker and pub” joint – the outside looked like something you’d find in northern Wisconsin, but inside it was a really nice billiard place with leather chairs. It hadn’t hit me until we were all sitting around talking about basketball that I noticed that these guys all had “Full Tilt Poker” Hats on. That’s when I started putting the pieces together. The other cue was one of the guys we were with does great prank calls… and they asked him to prank call Phil Hellmuth… for real... cause they are buddies.

Turns out I was hanging out with some of the best poker players in the world:

Erick Lindgren (2004 WPT Player of the Year, 2 WPT Championships)

Gavin Smith(2006 WPT Player of the Year)

Dan Negreanu (4 World Series of Poker Championships)

These guys were all super nice and down to earth – and here I am kicking it with them having no clue who they were. Fox later told me he thought it was funny watching me figure it out – as I started recognizing these guys from ESPN’s World Series of Poker coverage.

Turns out, Stepp and Doudney played in a big Vegas poker tournament where Erick Lindgren recognized Blake and said he’s a huge fan – while Blake was recognizing him and said he’s a huge Lindgren fan. Small world.

So the next night, we meet up with these guys again – this time at the MGM grand. Gavin rounds up about 6 of us to go to the Poker room. You should have seen the faces of these guys playing poker as Gavin walked in. It would be like if you’re playing hoops and the 2006 player of the year walked in and asked to shoot around.

Gavin basically told the pit boss: Get us a table for 8. The immediately told 3 college aged guys to move. (Gavin just ran the place… getting the dealer to change the rules for our table with betting requirements – etc.)

We sit down with Gavin, Fox, Blake, Doudney (who now lives part time in Vegas playing poker professionally), a Zag grad we know, a big time booster, Ray Giacoletti (GU assistant coach – former Eastern Washington Head Coach), and Mark Few (I sh*t you not… he was a little tipsy since we had just won the conference championship. Don’t worry – I didn’t have words with him).

So Gavin and Doudney start putting in the max bet of 200 dollars – blind. These guys go back and forth – basically playing even with literally about $3000 crossing the table in the course of 10 minutes. Finally, they settle down and we start playing for real.

I end up winning about 500 bucks – including a couple of head-to-head showdowns with both Gavin Smith and the GU assistant coach – meanwhile the GU Coaches are losing money left and right. But the funny line of the night - (and yes, there was far too much build-up and explaining who was who here) but Gavin – being fairly obnoxious (which is his MO) – goes – “Hey Fewy, I’m a huge Gonzaga fan. Why the hell didn’t you put Austin Daye on Stephan Curry last year to stop him from scoring 40” – Few looks back at him, smiles, and says “cause I didn’t want him to score 70”.

Guess that gives you a little insight into Few’s take on Daye’s defensive prowess. Either way – seeing a little sense of humor with him turned me slightly back towards his corner…

Championship Week

I'm finally back from Vegas and I couldn't be in more need of a vacation. That place just sucks the energy out of you!

I'll be including a kind of cool story from what happened out there shortly, but for the time being - let's catch up on what has happened this week:

Monday: Gonzaga Rolls. And I mean roll. I've never heard a coach - much less a coach I could care less for, Mark Few, say his team played perfect. But after both the Semi-final thumping of Santa Clara and one-time top 25 team St. Mary's the following night - Few said his boys played "perfect". I've got to admit, I was impressed with what Few has done with a team that has often relied on it's talent to win games. Fact is, this team hadn't shown a lot of heart until this weekend. I have to attribute that to Few and the coaching staff.

Meanwhile, I go 4 for 5 on my bets:

Wins:
W. Kentucky -4.5 vs. N. Texas (W 77-70)
VCU -3 vs George Mason (W 71-50)
Siena -3 vs Niagara (W 77-70)
Chattanooga +1.5 vs. College of Charleston (W 80-69)
Loss:
Ark-Little Rock -1.5 vs. S. Alabama (L 44-54)

Tuesday:
Big win for Cleveland State over Butler to advance, as major conference bubble teams cringe. I really, REALLY hope Cleveland State wins a game in the dance (or is atleast respectable) to shut up the pundits that wold rather have a sub-.500 team from the SEC or ACC in that slot instead of Cleveland State.

Wednesday:
Great win for Portland State, as they advance to the dance for the second straight year. They could be a force to be reckoned with, as they already beat Gonzaga at Gonzaga this year.

Live, From Las Vegas

I'm in Vegas for the WCC Tournament - and while this tourney hasn't been all that great, there have been plenty of games to talk about around the nation.

1. Congrats to Cornell - the first team to advance to the dance thanks to it's regular season championship in the Ivy League.

2. Buzzer Beater City: Two great buzzer beaters this weekend: Penn State with Taylor Battle's lay-up against Illinois that seemed to hang on the rim for 3 seconds, and then the Creighton/Wichita St game with saw TWO buzzer beaters: WS' bucket with 7 seconds left to take a 1 point lead - then the amazing shot at the buzzer to win it for Creighton March is Officially here!

3. The teams in the tourney at the time of this entry:

Cornell - Ivy
Radford - Big South

4. Finally, if you are wondering: I'm 2 for three on my college basketball bets:

W- Illinois State -5 over Evansville
W- Northern Iowa -1.5 over Bradley
L- VMI +3 over Radford

Not bad. Looking at Indiana +16 at Wisconsin... wat to parley it with some others. Any ideas?

Conference Tournament Kick-Off

It's March 3rd - and that means it's time for the start of conference tournaments!

We are at the official beginning of the road to the Final Four – where you can win your way in and survive and advance.

Today, three conference tournaments kick off: Big South, Ohio Valley, and the Horizon League.

So what to watch for?

Big South:
I think the most intriguing match-ups come in the Big South. Radford took the #1 seed, but they’ll be fighting off the likes of VMI and Liberty.
VMI (2 Seed) is one of the highest scoring team in D-1 scoring 90+ points 19 times this season (and put up 100+ 10 times, including 111 in a win at Kentucky!). They play Coastal Carolina who they spilt the season series with (W, 103-102, L, 100-97).
Liberty (3 Seed) features a familiar name: Seth Curry. Yup, Steph Curry’s Brother. They play Gardner Webb – where in the last meeting, visiting Liberty won in a 2OT thriller 95-90.
It would be a fun storyline if either VMI with their scoring, or the Other Curry brother at Liberty made a trip to the Tourney. Highest seed hosts these game, with the #1 seed hosting the semis and the highest remaining seed hosting the championship – although no team losing here would be in contention for an automatic bid. Championship game: March 7th.

Ohio Valley:
I’ll be honest, this conference bores me. Not a whole lot here other than Tennessee-Martin is the number 1 seed and could be a good 14/15 seed story line come tourney time. They have the 56th best “adjusted offense” according to KenPom.com.
These games are hosted by the higher seed until the Semis, which are held at the Summet Center in Nashville. Championship Game: March 7th.

Horizon League:
The bottom dwellers face off and beat up on each other for two rounds before getting a shot at the 1 seed Butler and the 2 seed UWGB. Watch to see if both Cleveland State and Wright State advance, as they have given Butler fits. If Butler losses, they’ll likely get two seeds from the Horizon, taking one of the coveted at-large bids. Opening rounds hosted by higher seed, with the rest of the tournament being held at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indy.

Gotta love “Survive and Advance”… next update tomorrow.

Why I HATE the Southland Conference

Call me a purist - but I like a certain order to the conference tournament schedule in the first couple of weeks of March. Unfortunately, the Southland Conference holds their conference tournament as if they were an actual major conference - and it's just not right.

Normally, the small conferences have their tournaments in in the last week of February and the first days of March. For instance, the Atlantic Sun conference - whose champion last year was Belmont - holds their conferece tournament March 4-7th.

That makes sense. Their championship is picked up by ESPN and they get some marquee coverage while other bigger conferences are winding down their season.

The WCC also goes this route, holding their conference tournament March 6-9th - playing their championship game on a Monday night when the bigger conferences have a few days off before their conference tournaments.

The Southland conference goes another route. They hold their tournament March 11th-15th. The same days as the Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, SEC, Big East... you get the picture.

Do they really think they are up with these other conferences? I mean - their top team last year was Austin Peay! This isn't top competition - this is a sub-par division 1 conference that should be playing their championship game on a random Tuesday in early March!

Not only do they compete with the SEC championship (and ESPN - for some reason - abliges and airs the game) but they also must create a headache for the committee. Granted, it probably just mean shuffling a couple of 15 and 16 seeds around, but it's a late decision the committee shouldn't have to waste time making.

The Southland conference pisses me off - and I will refuse to pick them to win a game in the Tournament.

#1 Seeds

Just a a couple of precious weeks until Selection Sunday and the #1 seeds couldn't be more up in the air.

Injuries are riddling top 10 teams, and the top contenders now head into conference tournaments and crucial end of the season road games.

That said - here is my projected number 1 seeds. This is not if the season were to end today, but rather, how I project the #1 seeds ending up on selection sunday:

1 East: UNC

North Carolina wins the ACC regular season, and even with a loss in the ACC Championship game, they are a number 1.

1 West: Memphis

The Tigers will benefit from a weak C-USA and winning out the rest of their games. While teams lie UConn and Pitt get beat up in Big East Tourney play, Memphis cruises to a Number 1 seed.

1 South: Oklahoma

The Sooners get their POY candidate back and tear up the Big 12. Number 1 seed, Check. Next Stop: Championship.

1 Midwest: Michigan State

This spot, in my opinion is the trickiest. If Pitt, UConn, or Louisville win the Big East, they'll be looking at this position. But if another team (like a Marquette) makes a run, this spot is open for the taking. In my opinion, Michigan Stat will win both the regular season and conference tourney championship in the Big Ten. Having done so in the top ranked conference by the RPI, the committee will award them a #1 seed.

Oddly enough, this leaves the Big East without a #1 seed. That means we'll likely see up to 4 Big East schools (Pitt, UCONN, Louisville, and Marquette) with 2 seeds. I don't think, however, that Marquette will get a 2 by virtue of their gauntlet of a schedule in the stretch run that will surely give them 2 or 3 losses (UCONN, @Louisville, @ Pitt, Syracuse)

How Many Will Dance In The Big Ten?

5? 6? 7?

Who knows how the committee will go on Selection Sunday. As it stands right now, there are 3 locks, and 5 teams hovering around the bubble.

Michigan State (20-4), Illinois (21-5), and Purdue (19-6) are all locks. Barring a unprecedented collapse, these team easily make the tourney.

Ohio State (17-6), Minnesota (19-6), Penn State (18-8), Wisconsin (16-9), and Michigan (16-10) are all toeing the line.

Of these teams, Ohio State ad Minnesota are in the best position: Both have 3 remaning home games, and should have a easy time finishing the season with more wins than losses.

OSU sees Northwestern twice, Illinois and Penn State at home, with road games at Purdue and Iowa. My take: 4-2 gets them in the tourney easily.

Minnesota has 3 homes games including Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan: all winnable. The wildcard will be @Mich. Assuming a loss at Illinois and a 3-2 finish, the Gophers are in as an 8 seed. 4-1 finish, move it up to a 6 or 7.

Penn State has worked their way into the conversation with some big wins recently - ut games @Ill, @ OSU, and @ Iowa will make the road a tough one. They'll need to go 3-2 to make a strong case to the committee (that would include a home win at Illinois and one road win).

Wisconsin should be able to finish strong, with two games versus Indiana, and a home game against Michigan. Winning on the road at Minnesota would give them 20 wins - but 3-2 finish down the stretch puts he ball i ntehir court to win in the Big Ten Tourney and advance to the dance.

Michigan is big long shot: their schedule includes two home games: Minn and Purdue, ans three road games: @Iowa, @Wisconsin, @ Minnesota. Three letters: NIT.

The way I see it, Big Ten gets 6 teams.

Loyola-Chicago

Butler is vulnerable.

Not only did Butler get beat by the under-matched Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, they got beat at Home. The old Hinkle Fieldhouse is best known for beingthat site of the championship game in the classic basketball movie "Hoosiers" and is normally a huge home court advantage for the Bulldogs. Now Butler has lost to both Loyola Chicago and to Wisconsin-GB, meaning the Horizon League Championship (March 3-10 - hosted at higher remaining seed) is up for grabs and the conference could send 2 teams dancing.

Turnaround

It may pain Minnesota Gopher fans to hear this, but Dan Monson deserves some credit.

After being booted from his Head Coaching position at the U of M, he found himself at Long Beach State - s school that went just 3-11 in conference last year, and 6-25 overall. Now, he's got his 49ers team one game out of first place behind Cal State Northridge - a team LBS beat earlier this season.

So despite failing miserably at the U - Monson seems to have found new life on the west coast at a small school... and with a couple wins in the Big West Tournament (3/11-3/14) - 'ol Danny could be back in the NCAA Tourney.

Week 13

It's always fun to take a look back on past seasons and see how teams moved up or down the rankings from mid-season to the Final Four. I do this because I wanted to see if my hometown Gophers had any shot at making the Final Four as they've dropped from the top 25 in the most recent rankings.

Here are the last ten Final Fours, listed as (Championship team, runner-up, final four team, final team) as well as their AP ranking in week 13 of that season. I then list the AP's top four teams in week 13 of that particular season.

'98-'99 UConn (2) over Duke (1), OSU (13), Mich St. (5)
1. Duke, 2. UConn, 3. Auburn, 4. Cincy

'99-'00 Michigan State (6) over Florida (12), Wisconsin (UR), UNC (UR)
1. Cincy, 2. Stanford, 3. Duke, 4. Syracuse

'00-'01 Duke (3) over Arizona (11), Maryland (13), Mich St.(4)
1. UNC, 2. Stanford, 3. Duke, 4. Mich St.

'01-'02 Maryland (3) over Indiana (UR), Kansas (2), Oklahoma (4)
1. Duke, 2. Kansas, 3. Maryland, 4. Oklahoma

'02-'03 Syracuse (17) over Kansas (9), Marquette (11), Texas (6)
1. Arizona, 2. Louisville, 3. Kentucky, 4. Florida

'03-'04 UConn (8) over Georgia Tech (18), Okla St (7), Duke (3)
1. Stanford, 2. St. Joe's, 3. Duke, 4. Miss St.

'04-'05 UNC (4) over Illinois (1), Louisville (12), Mich S. (11)
1.Illinois, 2. Kansas, 3. Kentucky, 4. UNC

'05-'06 Florida (10) over UCLA (15), LSU (25), George Mason (UR)
1. UConn, 2. Duke, 3. Memphis, 4. Villanova

'06-'07 Florida (1) over OSU (3), UCLA (2), Georgetown (22)
1. Florida, 2. UCLA, 3. OSU, 4. Wisconsin

'07-'08 Kansas (4) over Memphis (1), UNC (3), UCLA (5)
1. Memphis, 2. Duke, 3. UNC, 4. Kansas


Some interesting stats in te last ten years:

40% of teams ranked #1 after week 13 have reaced the championship game.
10% of temas ranked #1 after week 13 win the championship (1 out of 10).

10% of final four teams since '98-'99 were unranked in week 13 (4 of 40).

The average AP ranking of a final four team at week 13 is 9.6 (ideally, it would be 2.5)

5 More Weeks

We're less than 840 hours until selection sunday... it just won't come soon enough!

It was a rough weekend for my teams (Gonzaga/Minnesota) - and the field of 65 couldn't be more clouded.

Here, now, is my latest look at seeding and location for the tournments top 4 seeds in each region.

1 Seeds
East: UConn - Philadelphia
West: Pitt - Philadelphia
Midwest: Oklahoma - Kansas City
South: UNC - Greensboro

2 Seeds
East: Duke - Greensboro
West: Wake - Forest Boise
Midwest: Memphis - Minneapolis
South: Louisville - Dayton

3 Seeds
East: Marquette - Miami
West: Xavier - Dayton
Midwest: Clemson - Minneapolis
South: UCLA - Portland

4 Seeds
East: Michigan State - Boise
West: Kansas - Portland
Midwest: Villanova - Miami
South: Butler - Kansas City

Blow-out City

Seeing a couple of blow-out upsets on ESPN nver looked so good.

As a Minnesota Gopher fan, I had been hoping for the Gophs to at least put up a fight against a tough Michigan State squad (fresh off a loss at home to Penn State)... but Minnesota ran into a buzzsaw and couldn't hit a thing. They got blown out by 29.

That hurt - until I got home and saw that #3 Duke had lost at #10 Clemson by 27, and #6 Wake got pummled by the same score at unranked Miami(FL).

So in the end, College Basketball Tonight doesn't hit on the Gophers game until the second or third segment - and the Gophers can have all forgiven with a win at Ohio State on Saturday. Whew!

One Heavy Bubble

With less than 40 days to go until Selection Sunday, I decided to take a peek at what this year's "Bubble" looked like. And let's just say this season: You don't want to be on the bubble.

Here's a conference-by-conference breakdown of how many teams I consider a lock:
ACC-4
Big East-7
Big Ten-5
Big 12-4
Pac 10-4
SEC-4
A10-2
MWC-3
C-USA-1

The rest of the conferences will likely just have their automatic bid - but that's assuming the following teams win their tourney:
MAAC-Siena
Southern-Davidson
WAC-Utah St.

If these teams lose in their conference tournament, they'll be palced firmly on the bubble... a very, very large bubble.

With the conference locks (34) and other automatic bids (22), that puts us at 56 teams - leaving 9 spots for this laundry list of legitimate bubble teams:

Boston College
Florida State
Va Tech
Miami (FL)
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Baylor
Providence
G'Town
Notre Dame
Penn State
Northwestern
Michigan
Tulsa
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Arizona
USC
Kentucky
Mississippi St.
Mississippi
St. Mary's

Should be an interesting stretch run!

BracketBuster Saturday

As a product of a mid-major myself - I love the idea of Bracket Buster Saturday. It pits teams like Butler against Davidson and St. Mary's against Utah State.

This weekend, however, can be a double-edged sword. Some teams can be catapulted into NCAA Tournament at-large status, while others will be looked at as long-shot bubble teams who need to win their conference tournament to make the Big Dance.

For instance, say Northern Iowa, a legit bubble team at an RPI of 73, gets beat at Siena - a tough, tough team, RPI of 20 - it'll be looked at as the end of Northern Iowa's At-Large hopes. Granted - if you win the games, you're going to get in. But unfortunately, these games are make and break for the mid-majors out there.

I guess in the end it adds to the drama - but while it can help the winners of these games, the losers often lose more than the game - regardless of where it is.

Delusion - or the Real Deal?

Seeing the University of Portlan being recognized as an "On the Bubble" school provokes mixed emotions in me.

On the one hand, I couldn't be prouder. As a WCC alum from Gonzaga, it's good to see the young Pilots playing well and getting some respect. It's like seeing your little, less athletic brother getting some recognition for his performance on the basketball court.

It's also a sign of the continued progress of the WCC as one of the more respected conferences outside of the "big 6". With both St. Mary's and Gonzaga being ranked in the top 25 during the course of the year, having a third team to add to the mix of potentially 'legit' teams from the conference only helps the cause.

On the other hand, it erks me. My buddy Dan graduated from UP a few years back (we were both attending school at the same time), and he is literally on cloud 9 with the squad's most recent success. Portland is the last school to beat Gonzaga at the Kennel ( a game the two of us both witnessed in person) and it kills me to this day, despite Gonzaga beating Portland every other time we've played since our attendance at our respective schools.

Now, I have been called - correctly - extremely dillusional when it comes to the WCC and Gonzaga (among other things), but Dan has taken his UP dillusions to a whole different level in years past. Year after year its "these guys are young and talented, give them a couple of years" - "Coach Holton is building a good squad this time around". It was all for naught. UP never had any significant success (outside o the one GU win) in the WCC or otherwise that translated into postsason opportunities.

Is this year any different?

Personally, I can't help but agree with Dan this time around. This Portland team is legit. They are winning games much like the unproven Gonzaga teams of the late 90s, early 2000s: Great Shooting. They have the 4th highest 3pt shooting percentage in the nation: 40.5%
They've also had a couple of very nice wins: Washington and St. Mary's (granted, without Mills).

They've also had some bad losses: Eastern Washington at Home

But they've also had some good losses: @ Cal, @ BYU, @Oregon and @Portland State

UP has had some injuries to contend with - but they are now healthy. And in all: I'm extremely worried about Gonzaga losing one at the Nipple on Thursday. I don't think Portland's success is a delusion - and I suspect if the Zags think it's a delusion, they'll find out in real time that the Pilots are the Real Deal.

Guess the Team:

Here are 4 teams... where would you seed them?

Team 1:
RPI: 12
SOS: 51
Versus RPI top 50:8-0
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):Purdue, Texas

Team 2:
RPI: 5
SOS: 45
Versus RPI top 50:5-3
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):@Tennessee, OK St

Team 3:
RPI: 20
SOS: 110
Versus RPI top 50:5-3
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):West Virginia, Villanova

Team 4:
RPI:11
SOS:76
Versus RPI top 50:4-3
Key wins (vs. top 50 RPI):Davidson, @Wisconsin

Answers:
Team 1 - Oklahoma
Team 2 - Gonzaga
Team 3 - Marquette
Team 4 - Purdue

I'd say all four teams are top four seeds given their resumes - though one loss for any of these teams could change that.

Groundhog Day

It's groundhog day - and Punxsutawney Phil stuck his head out of his hole to find out we've got 6 more weeks of winter... but good news: Selection Sunday is less than 6 weeks away!

To cure some boredom - I've started this blog: Bracketolitics. It's a mouthful, I know - but everything else with "brackets" in it was taken and I felt the convergance of politics and bracketology was fitting for me.

So, to debate in my first post: Who are the #1 seeds?

Right now I see them as:

UConn
Oklahoma
UNC
Louisville

(those arguing Duke, Wake, or Pitt: I don't see howhtey survive the rest of the season without a loss. Plus whoever wins the Big East (as I see Louisville doing) will get a #1 seed.

What are your thoughts?